The 2025 US Open women’s draw opens with a high-stakes first-round clash between World No. 3 Iga Swiatek and Colombian rising star Emiliana Arango. While the odds and experts lean heavily in Swiatek’s favor, the encounter represents both a stern test for the underdog and an opportunity for the reigning Wimbledon and Cincinnati champion to stamp her authority early in New York.
Swiatek’s Momentum: A Champion in Form
Iga Swiatek enters the US Open in sparkling form, riding a wave of confidence after clinching her first Wimbledon crown in July and following it up with her maiden Cincinnati Open title earlier this month. Remarkably, she stormed through the Cincinnati draw without dropping a set, displaying the dominance that has made her a fixture at the top of the WTA rankings.
Her familiarity with North American hard courts is an added advantage. Having already lifted a US Open title in 2022, Swiatek understands the physical and mental demands of the tournament. Bookmakers have taken note—DraftKings lists her as a heavy favorite at –5000, while most betting models give her over a 95% probability of advancing.
For Swiatek, this opening match is less about survival and more about laying down a marker. A commanding straight-sets victory would be the perfect statement as she sets her sights on another deep run in New York.
Arango’s Breakthrough Year
On the other side of the net is Emiliana Arango, a 24-year-old Colombian qualifier who has steadily risen in the rankings thanks to her perseverance and improved consistency. In 2025, Arango celebrated the biggest milestones of her career—winning her first WTA 125 title in Cancún and reaching the final of the WTA 500 Mérida Open. These results catapulted her into the world’s Top 100, making her a name to watch among South America’s new generation of talent.
Arango is known for her fighting spirit and athleticism, but her serve remains inconsistent, with a success rate hovering around 50%. Against a relentless returner like Swiatek, such weaknesses could be brutally exposed. Still, for Arango, this matchup is a valuable chance to test herself against one of the game’s very best on tennis’ grandest stage.
Odds and Predictions
The betting markets paint a clear picture:
- Iga Swiatek: –5000
- Emiliana Arango: +2000
According to simulations by Dimers, Swiatek has a 97% chance of progressing, with virtually all analysts predicting a straight-sets victory.
Yet, the unpredictability of Grand Slam tennis means Arango cannot be dismissed entirely. A slow start from Swiatek or inspired shot-making from the Colombian could make for a competitive opener, at least in patches. However, the gulf in experience, shot tolerance, and mental toughness seems too wide to bridge.
What’s at Stake
For Swiatek, this first-round duel is a chance to continue her dominance and build momentum toward a possible third US Open crown. She arrives in New York with the aura of inevitability, her recent run making her one of the top favorites for the title.
For Arango, the goal is different: to savor the spotlight, challenge herself against a world-class opponent, and perhaps push Swiatek into uncomfortable positions. Even in defeat, such a performance could bolster her confidence and accelerate her growth as a mainstay on the WTA Tour.
Final Prediction
All signs point to Iga Swiatek securing a routine win, most likely in straight sets. The Polish star’s relentless baseline game, court coverage, and mental edge make her one of the toughest first-round opponents in the sport. While Emiliana Arango brings momentum and heart, the gulf in class should prove decisive.
Predicted Scoreline: Swiatek wins 6–2, 6–3.
✅ Key Takeaway: Expect a professional, no-nonsense performance from Iga Swiatek as she kicks off her US Open campaign, while Emiliana Arango gains invaluable experience from sharing the stage with one of the game’s most dominant champions.