Match Overview
- Round: Round of 64 (second round for Sabalenka, who had a first-round bye)
- Date: August 8, 2025
- Surface: Outdoor hard courts at the Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio.
Head-to-Head & Recent Form
- Their rivalry is evenly poised—4–4 in head-to-head matchups. However, Sabalenka holds a 3–1 edge in hard-court meetings.
- Notably, Vondroušová bested Sabalenka most recently, defeating her in straight sets at the Berlin Open semifinals this year
- Vondroušová has battled back from a shoulder injury and captured the Berlin title as a low-ranked underdog—now ranked around No. 73—making her a dangerous opponent .
- Sabalenka, world No. 1 and defending champion, arrives rested after skipping Montreal to fine-tune her hard-court preparation ahead of the US Open season finale
What’s at Stake
- Sabalenka is defending 3,000 ranking points from her 2024 title run in Cincinnati.
- A strong performance here could reaffirm her dominance and build momentum heading into the US Open.
- Vondroušová, on a comeback arc, can boost her confidence and ranking by taking down the top seed on hard court.
Predictions & Betting Odds
- Last Word on Tennis emphasizes the difficulty of the matchup for Sabalenka, noting that Vondroušová has won their last two meetings—even on grass—and slow courts may favor the Czech.
- TheStatsZone predicts a tough battle: Sabalenka favored but likely in three sets (2–1)
- ProFootballNetwork points to Sabalenka’s season-best consistency on hard courts and positions her as a safer pick.
- The Playoffs goes further, forecasting a straight-sets win for Sabalenka, citing odds such as 21/50 in her favor.
- Dimers estimates a 69% probability of Sabalenka winning the match.
- Sportskeeda echoes the sentiment that Sabalenka’s hard-court dominance makes her the clear favorite, predicting a straight-sets victory.
Final Prediction
Sabalenka’s form, ranking, and hard-court pedigree position her as the strong favorite. However, Vondroušová’s recent win in Berlin and crafty, defensive game—combined with slower court conditions—suggest this could stretch to three sets.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win, likely in three sets, after a battling performance from Vondroušová.
Quick Summary Table
| Player | Key Factors | Prediction |
| Sabalenka | World No. 1, defending champ, strong on hard courts | Favored; likely to prevail |
| Vondroušová | Recent Berlin win, comeback from injury, grinder’s style | Dangerous underdog; may push to 3 |
| Match Outlook | Tactical, high-stakes encounter requiring focus and resilience | Edge to Sabalenka; possibly 2–1 |